In the wake of the general election, Stephen Baker is feeling his age… perhaps so is the United Kingdom, he argues.
If precedent and predictions are to be believed, the Conservative Party have a Parliamentary majority so big that Boris Johnson can look forward to two terms as UK Prime Minister. That means I’ll be in my 60s before there is any likelihood that he or his damnable party is removed from power: that’ll be 19 successive years of Tory led government between 2010 and 2029.
Think about that.
A party composed of rogues and scoundrels, that exists purely to secure and increase power and wealth in the hands of the rich; that has already spent the last ten years imposing grinding austerity; that has been inert in the face of the climate emergency; and that instigated a deeply divisive constitutional crisis in a bid to save itself, has just been returned to power with a landslide election victory. I find it almost unbearable to contemplate.
I’ve lived most of my life under Tory governments of one stripe or another. The first general election I remember was in 1979 when Margaret Thatcher defeated Labour’s James Callaghan. I was 11 years old and relatively unperturbed by the result at the time, but as teenager I grew to loath the Conservative Party for its socially illiberal politics, its casual racism and its appetite for wrecking industries, working class communities and underfunding public services.
After Thatcher’s election in 1979, the Tories went on to win three more general elections in a reign that lasted 17 years before Tony Blair led Labour back to power in 1997. If the Tories win the next election in 2024, the memory of that New Labour government will seem a mere intermission in a lifetime of otherwise uninterrupted Tory rule.
With hindsight, I suspect Labour was only given access to Number 10 because Blair broke bread with the ruling class and offered assurances that there would be no significant deviation from the agenda set by Thatcher. Ruling class acquiescence to Labour’s assent to power was signaled to all throughout the land when Rupert Murdoch’s influential Sun newspaper declared its support for Blair in March 1997. Sure enough, the three Labour governments – elected in 1997, 2001, and 2005 – kept faith with marketisation and privatisation, and just as Thatcher had her military adventure in the Falklands, so Blair had his in Iraq and Afghanistan.
All those years of free market zealotry and post-imperial melancholia – with potentially 10 more years of it to come. It all takes its toll on a mind and a body; as it does on a nation and a union.
Living in Northern Ireland, as I have done all my life, I’ve never voted for any of the UK’s governing parties. Labour doesn’t stand here and I’ve never, nor will I ever, vote Tory. Instead I regularly participate in elections that reduce politics to sectarian head-counting and proxy border polls, and at the end of each I get a unionist MP. This means that I’ve never been represented by anyone I’ve actually voted for.
Never. Not once.
As if that’s not bad enough, the politics I believe in are rarely given a fair hearing; either ignored in mainstream debate or raised only to be knocked down like a fairground Aunt Sally in the flow of dominant opinion. Forty odd years of watching BBC’s Question Time, or Newsnight, or listening to Radio 4’s Today, or reading the Guardian, only to have it confirmed time and time again that I exist on the lunatic fringe because I believe in public ownership and oppose imperialist wars.
As Jeremy Corbyn’s youthful supporters have discovered, if you espouse anything so radical (and necessary) as a green industrial revolution, or if you refuse to press the nuclear button and send the world and humanity to oblivion, you’ll be presented by the ruling class’s flunkeys in the media as a dangerous subversive. If you’re lucky, they’ll cast you as a mere harmless eccentric.
And maybe such opinions are eccentric in a country that is effectively a one-party state, with its soap-opera of a monarchy and its unelected second chamber; where politicians welcome the opening of foodbanks to feed the ‘left behind’ and working poor; where thousands of lives can be sacrificed in the pursuit of ideologically driven austerity while banks receive bailouts; where the likes of Jimmy Savile and Ian Duncan Smith get honoured; where an antediluvian rent-a-ghost like Jacob Rees Mogg is elevated from backbench obscurity to Leader of the House of Commons; where the political ambitions of a liar are abetted by a compliant media and public service broadcaster to boot.
Frankly, I want none of this, but I can’t see any effective way of speaking out against it, let alone changing it; certainly not under the UK’s withered democratic system, underscored, as it is, by a media that is driven by ideological and commercial imperatives at the expense of democratic ones.
That’s why the last election feels like a decisive moment to me. I am now middle aged, staring into a future of continuous English Tory government, confronted with the awful realisation that I am politically insignificant. Neither my opinions nor my vote matters one iota.
Why should I care? I have, after all, as my Granny might have said, an arse in my trousers. I could probably see out my life in relative domestic comfort, despite the feeling of political impotence. But where is the dignity in that? As the veteran actor Michael Caine said when asked about the potential economic downside of Brexit: “I’d rather be a poor master of my own fate than a rich servant of someone else’s.” Who wants to be a well-kept vassal?
That’s why I never resented people who voted to leave the EU, even though I voted to remain. Brexit’s simple message (some would say simplistic proclamation) to “Take back control” resonated with me too. Of course, it was an empty signifier, capable of appealing to the politically and economically disenfranchised, just as much as those who wanted a return to empire’s imaginary glory.
I confess I was even quietly delighted at the evident shock among some of my fellow Remainers: their tantrums and their tears as they accused their opponents of racism and stupidity. I looked at employers, pundits and politicians in their convulsions and thought, “Hell slap it into ya!” In all their inglorious arrogance, complacency and greed they were in my eyes the progenitors of Brexit and its attendant turmoil: they can own it. Perhaps not the most nuanced or considered analysis, but it’s how I felt then. That’s how I still feel, if I’m honest.
Consequently, I am in the market for wholesale constitutional reform. I suspect I’m not the only one. I have, as outlined above, my own grievances, but a sizeable chunk of the Scottish electorate also look (oven)ready for constitutional change – 1,617,989 (44.7%) of them at last count, in the independence referendum of 2014. That figure looks like it is going to rise, prompting former UK PM Gordon Brown to warn this week that “Unless the regions and nations feel they have a voice that is respected in the United Kingdom, the UK’s three hundred year old history may at some point soon be over.”
Scotland’s First Minister Nichola Sturgeon has demanded a second referendum in the wake of the SNP’s landslide election victory in Scotland. Legally it is for Westminster to decide if and when another referendum takes place, and with Boris Johnson having enjoyed a landslide of his own in England, a second Scottish independence referendum might not happen anytime soon. Indeed, there are rumours that after Brexit the government will focus on strengthening the Union. To this end, a senior Government source is reported as saying that, “Scotland is going to see a lot more of Boris and his ministers in 2020.”
Scotland can only shudder in anticipation of such visitations!
However, it is hard to imagine that a Westminster government would try to keep Scotland in the UK against its will.
All the momentum is with nationalism. But not just Scottish nationalism. As the DUP discovered too late, Brexit is less a project to “make Britain great again” than an expression of English self-determination, which begs the question: is there anyone interested in, or even capable of making the unionist case?
The empire has gone. The post-war social democratic settlement is repealed. The welfare state is withering away. A convivial multicultural society is beset by a hostile environment. The things that once made the United Kingdom imaginable and attractive to many have been jettisoned since that election in 1979 that brought Margaret Thatcher to power. As the eminent Scottish historian, Tom Devine, explained back in 2014 during the independence referendum campaign:
“I come from a Labour background that includes my grandfather, mother and father and I was very much anti-independence at the start of the campaign. For me, the catalyst for change has been how threadbare the union has become since the early 1980s and linked to that is the transformation of Scotland. I wouldn’t have voted for this in the Scotland of the 1970s or 80s. It’s the Scotland that has evolved since the late 80s and 90s that is fuelling my Yes vote. It now seems to me to be in a fit condition to run a successful economy. There is a list of reasons for this.
“There has been a Scottish parliament which has demonstrated competent government and that parliament has also indicated, by the electoral response to it, that the Scottish people seem to be wedded to a social democratic agenda and the kind of political values which sustained and were embedded in the welfare state of the 1950s. In fact, you could argue that it is the Scots who have tried to preserve the idea of Britishness in terms of state support and intervention, and that it is England that has chosen to go on a separate journey since the 1980s.“
The UK now faces a Tory Brexit withdrawal bill that the Scottish Parliament has just voted to reject by a margin of 92 MSPs to 29, the Northern Ireland Assembly has rejected unanimously, with the Welsh Assembly rejecting it as I write. This is all to no avail. The Brexit bill will be passed in Westminster anyway.
The imbalance of power between the constituent parts of the UK is obvious. It was clear during the general election campaign, which in the end boiled down to one thing: what mattered most to English voters? Was it getting Brexit done? Or was it the NHS, the climate emergency and even the United Kingdom itself? Well, now we know the answer. It seems that the vote to leave the EU wasn’t just some splenetic eruption at the injustices of austerity, although that may have played into it. It represents a genuine desire for English national self-determination. People in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland need now to consider what a more assertive, self-conscious Englishness will entail; an Englishness that has found its political expression in Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party.
22 January 2020