Two years on

Connecting and combining the threads…

Maurice closes the year by looking back – and forward!

It’s traditional at this point to look back over the year just ending, and perhaps to look forward to what’s to come. But it might be better, as 2018 comes to a close, to take a quick look back over the two years that have led to this point.

We published our first post on 25 December 2016, and our first film almost a week later, on the eve of 2017. We went on to look at the connections between the industrial revolution and the birth of modern democratic movements, local and international politics, and the development of sustainable economic democracy.

That first film, which I shot (with a compact camera) while on a brief trip to Brussels, raised some questions about the connections between power, inequality, and violence in the light of the then recent Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump.

So how do matters stand two years down the line? Well, as far as Brexit is concerned, it is difficult to see that there are any good choices ahead. The deal that the Conservatives spent two years negotiating with Brussels appears to have satisfied pretty much no one, Remainer or Leaver. That’s not to say a better deal was ever on the table, let alone easy to obtain, despite the lofty claims of back-bench politicians from the DUP to the ERG, who seem to think, like some British tourists, that it’s just a matter of going back to the continent and explaining what we want, only louder, in English. 

There are two problems with that approach: one, it is far from clear even to us what we want; and two, negotiating a deal does not mean us telling them what we want and them giving it to us. Nobody who has ever had to actually negotiatea deal would ever think so simplistically. 

That said, the alternatives are not much more attractive. It would be preferable to have a people’s vote, I would argue, but let us not fool ourselves that this would provide an easy route out of the mess we are in. Let’s assume there are three options on the ballot – the PM’s withdrawal deal, a ‘no-deal’ hard Brexit, and cancelling Brexit altogether. The electorate would be asked to rank these in order of preference; the least popular would be struck off; the remaining two options would be weighed against each other and the winner would emerge. 

Let’s say ‘Remain’ squeezes out a narrow win. We would then immediately have a massive resurgence in all the forces Farage et al stoked in the run-up to 2016. Suddenly they would be calling for another referendum, and we would face the risk of slipping into an endless vortex of argument over Europe. Too much political energy has already been sucked into this vortex; it is impossible to predict what another few years of these arguments would do to the fabric of our society, the economy, and all the other issues we ought to be thinking about, but can’t, until we get Brexit sorted out.

But there’s no guarantee Remain would win. What if ‘hard Brexit’ won? The economic and social damage could last for generations, not just years. Those on the right who support this option believe this would free the UK to become a low-tax, low-regulation, dynamic economy off the coast of a sclerotic Europe. Quite how they think they will have more success negotiating new trade deals with scores of other countries than they have had with the EU is yet to be explained. Even if they do, the effects of turning the crank faster, in terms of inequality and unsustainability don’t bear thinking about.

Some on the left may think that such an abrupt exit might at last spur the shift towards full-blown socialism, but it is very difficult to see any clear path to that Utopia in the current situation. 

Here the parallel with the US may be helpful. Two years into Donald Trump’s presidency, and it is clear that many of the worst fears of his opponents have been realised. He has continued to be divisive, feeding red meat to his MAGA-hat wearing base, while trampling on the rights of others. 

He has pulled the US out of the Paris Accords; he has taken the children of asylum seekers from their parents and put them in cages; he has given huge tax breaks to the already unimaginably wealthy and has worked hard to remove health insurance from the least well-off. He has described some of those who marched with neo-Nazis as ‘very fine people’ and has appointed a Supreme Court Judge credibly accused of sexual assault. The list goes on – and on.

Yet throughout these last two years his democratic (and Democratic) opponents have organised, mobilised, put themselves forward for election in unprecedented numbers, so that when all the results finally came in, it was not unreasonable to describe November’s mid-terms as a ‘blue wave’ election.

That said, we are a very long way from bringing about anything like the sort of transformation we need. However, it appears there is some momentum in the right direction – that is, towards a more sustainable, democratic political economy. Take the newly elected Democrats’ championing of a Green New Deal – a major policy initiative designed to create a just transition away from fossil fuels and into creating decent, well-paid jobs in a new sustainable economy.  

So there are hopeful green new shoots arising. But no one should underestimate the difficulties they face. Even the putative Green New Deal appears to have been watered down by the more established Democrats, and that’s before the committee is even formed.

In the end, then, two years into the Trump-Brexit era, we cannot afford to relax. There is much work to be done. The movement in the grassroots is encouraging but it is still very small in scale. As we set out into the new year, the Combination will look at some of these movements, ecological, economic and political, to see where they overlap – where it is possible to connect the dots between the issues and combine the campaigns, in moving towards a just transition to the new polity we desperately need.

So from Tanya, Stephen and me, best wishes for the the New Year!

Maurice Macartney

27 December 2018